Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals
I expect the speech to be more hawkish than the market prices. It will greatly displease President Trump.
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PML's Macro Focus
UK Budget: Excess Spending is the Problem
The UK's fiscal and growth problems are rooted in excessive outlays
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PML's Macro Focus
2
Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine
Fewer visits to Vegas mean underlying consumption has stalled
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PML's Macro Focus
US Manufacturing Does What it Does Best: Stagnates
July's Manufacturing Production Showed Another Flat Month for US Manufacturing
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PML's Macro Focus
US Retail Sales Holding up Because of Tariffs, Not Despite Them
Anticipation of tariff-driven price hikes is bringing purchases forward
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PML's Macro Focus
UK Q2 GDP: Flattering to Deceive?
Better Than Expected, But Not as Good as it Looks
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PML's Macro Focus
Scott Bessents' Interest Rate Objective
The Treasury Secretary wants negative real rates. That would push up inflation.
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PML's Macro Focus
US: July CPI Preview
I expect a stronger inflation print than the consensus
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PML's Macro Focus
3
UK: Why is Inflation So Persistent?
It's no mystery, it's monetary policy.
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PML's Macro Focus
1
The OBR's Projections Have Encouraged Governments on Large-Scale Immigration
Chancellors are desperate to generate growth and fiscal revenues. The OBR showed them that one way to achieve that was large-scale immigration.
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PML's Macro Focus
2
The UK's Need for Mass Immigration
Tougher Immigration Policy Would Hurt Growth and the Public Finances
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PML's Macro Focus
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
Recession is Baked in Given the Adverse Trend, with Shocks Still to Feed Through
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PML's Macro Focus
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